nater5000
This is a very "funny" post:
- OpenAI can easily not become anything of significance in the future, even if the OP's prediction of the future becomes reality. I'd argue that being bought by a government and controlled within the ethical confines of that government would be a great way for OpenAI to quickly fall behind its peers who aren't subject to such regulations (which is the entire point of this post in the first place).
- Norway may be a great country ran by a great government, but that doesn't mean they would be a great leader of some AI revolution. Not only is the bar for being a competent government not particularly high on the world scale, but the skills of a competent government don't necessarily translate to the skills of an AI revolution Sherpa. I don't see why the OP feels Norway wouldn't use an advanced AI to simply enrich itself while leaving other countries to fend for themselves. It's not like Norway's fund is designed to serve the rest of the world as it is, nor is it the case that Norwegians would allow their government to serve other countries at the cost of their own well being.
- Those at OpenAI would either (a) never entertain this offer or (b) would sell to Norway if this exact thesis wasn't true (i.e., they'd be happy to sell if they thought OpenAI was going to become worthless anyway). Using the logic that the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global can just buy OpenAI because it has more money than a given valuation for OpenAI is embarrassing. It lacks any understanding of how businesses and investments work, let alone how investments in these specific businesses work. I mean, the OP starts this post off explaining how they think OpenAI can effectively rule the world once their expectations for their technology is realized. Why would they sell their ticket to unlimited wealth for a relatively small offer?
esafakreply
> I'd argue that being bought by a government and controlled within the ethical confines of that government would be a great way for OpenAI to quickly fall behind its peers who aren't subject to such regulations (which is the entire point of this post in the first place).
Behind in what? You write as if it is a univariate concern. I haven't read the post but why couldn't Norway force OpenAI to be more alignment-conscious? Then it would be ahead in safety, especially if competitors don't pay attention to that.
wrsreply
“Behind” = less capable, less used, less resourced. Safety and alignment don’t necessarily correlate with market dominance. If they did, no safety regulations would be needed.
esafakreply
We have to stop pretending that the market automatically arrives at socially optimal solutions. We don't say car safety regulations need to be weakened to compete with China, but when it comes to AI, safety magically goes out the window.
b112reply
Haven't read the blog, but I can think of a good reason to sell. HQ moves to Norway, no more direct US government interference.
(they can still interfere, just not anywhere near the same scope)
You may think "but government ownership means more interference", and yes, but not radicalized, crazy assed, mercurial, emotional interference.
cactusplant7374reply
The US government would never allow a sale. Frontier intelligence given away? It is the ASML story all over again. I would hope we have learned our lesson.
paulcolereply
> no more direct US government interference
Bro, c'mon.
If the US wants to interfere with something they will interfere with it.
To think otherwise is Euro-brain-maxxing.
throwaway894345reply
You didn't even make it to the parent's third sentence "bro".
raincolereply
Yeah, move to EU to avoid government interference. Who wouldn't have thought that?
throwaway894345reply
On the other hand, move to the EU and market to customers who don't want to worry about trade wars disrupting their business or the US government subpoena-ing data. Probably not a big enough market to justify that move yet, but it's not obvious to this American that my government is going to reverse its current self-destructive course.
tanelpoderreply
Norway is not part of EU (if by EU you meant European Union, not just a country in Europe)
sixtyjreply
Norway is participating in EU trade, but is not its member. They are part of Schengen (passport-free travel between 29 European countries).
pinkmuffinerereply
> Not only is the bar for being a competent government not particularly high on the world scale
This is such a ridiculous, preposterously self-confident claim. Claims like this give HN (and engineers in general) a bad reputation.
Edit: relevant xkcd https://xkcd.com/793/
applfanboysbgonreply
What about this sentiment is specific to HN or engineers, that non-HN-types would so vigorously disagree with? How many countries in the world would have the average respondent in a survey describe their government as competent?
whimsicalismreply
I don't disagree with the sentiment but I think obviously negativity bias would be a significant cofounder.
stuaxoreply
It fits into such a stereotype for HN types, TBH it's the kind of thing that keeps visiting this place amusing.
mirmor23reply
> This is such a ridiculous, preposterously self-confident claim. Claims like this give HN (and engineers in general) a bad reputation.
all you've done is use some fancy words to discredit OP's claim.
what makes you think people who have built all the extremely complex and robust technical infrastructure are unable to comprehend of this amazingly complex government that you seem to be putting on a pedestal, let alone design a better one?
how about even a simpler question: why are almost all governments inefficient (except may be few like tax department) and are full of red-carpet paper pushers?
SepiaSapientreply
us-east-1 goes down and half of the "extremely complex and robust technical infrastructure" that Silicon Valley types have built stops working.
The average computer toucher with delusions of grandeur would kill themselves if they had to moderate a public assembly or do a public facing job in a municipal office. Of course you believe that's peon work and your superior intellect with unlimited power as leader would build something better, cue https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_State_Project
georgeecollinsreply
>> how about even a simpler question: why are almost all governments inefficient (except may be few like tax department) and are full of red-carpet paper pushers?
That you can just assert that as though it is a fact universally known says a lot where your head is at. If the private sector is so efficient, how come US health care is so much more expensive than some public health systems with better outcomes? How come public utilities are sometimes cheaper than private ones? Why do public fire departments exist at all, why not have contractors? Etc.
I agree government is often inefficient. The world is just obviously more complicated then you are considering.
kybernetikosreply
> why are almost all governments inefficient
Efficiency is not the aim of government, except in constrained ways. Efficiency would generally run contrary to governance, transparency, innovation, responsiveness, general applicability, justice, rule following, considering the long term and not just the short term, recognition of human dignity, security etc.
All those things have a cost that takes away from maximum delivery efficiency, but generally societies decide that the cost is worth it.
Imnimo
Would Norway be prepared to commit to huge future capex spending? Like the pitch that OpenAI is going to achieve AGI seems to rely on vast investments in more compute over the coming years. If you just pay the $800B and then take your foot off the gas, do you still have a frontier lab or have you just paid a lot of money to remove a competitor from the market?
downrightmikereply
We see in practice that the last to adopt technology do in fact have newer tech than the ones who started it. IE 3G in Asia vs land lines in USA.
So all they have to do is wait a bit and build a frontier model of their own.
ACCount37reply
I don't think it works that way for AI. Comms networks are extensive physical infrastructure that, by definition, has to cover ground. AIs cover the ground by riding the existing comms lines.
In telecomms, the late mover has the advantage of not having legacy networks to maintain, and having better technologies available at rollout time. What is the "late mover advantage" in AI? Being able to distill from every bleeding edge frontier lab? That gets you near parity at best.
tredre3reply
> That gets you near parity at best.
So they don't spend 20 trillion dollars to achieve AGI, and in the end they still end up at parity for a tiny fraction of the cost.
How can you claim that this isn't a win?
Alpha3031reply
Getting to parity with less money means that you can go further with the same amount of money.
geonreply
> achieve AGI
They might as well invest in cold fusion, warm superconductivity, curing cancer or whatever sci-fi concept you have.
Razenganreply
Make a ship sail against the wind by lighting a bonfire under her deck???
ACCount37reply
Were you not paying attention? Modern LLMs are incredibly general AIs, and nearing human or superhuman performance in many areas. And the tech just keeps advancing.
If you don't see "AGI is possible", you aren't looking.
metalliqazreply
There is a very big difference between language generation and true intelligence.
"The ability to speak does not make you intelligent." - Qui Gon Jinn
panarkyreply
Norway doesn't have to fund future capex just like OpenAI doesn't have to fund future capex. They both borrow the capital.
Tepix
OpenAI will likely not IPO this year because their numbers are so poor compared to those of Anthropic's. However if they don't IPO, they cannot pay for all those datacenters they ordered.
Meanwhile, Chinese companies are creating SOTA models and make them available for free, strongly limiting the amount of money that OpenAI and Anthropic can demand for their similar models via API. Their sky high valuations are likely to suffer as chinese models are considered "good enough" and safe to use when hosted in the West. They even have fewer safeguards and are thus more suitable for cybersecurity tasks.
tl;dr: They're fucked. Don't buy them.
danudeyreply
Don't worry, AI companies and the companies around them have ensured that so much of the US economy is tied into AI that they've become Too Big to Fail, so that when things eventually collapse the US government will give them trillions of dollars without asking anything in return. That will allow them to socialize their irresponsible spending and wipe the red out of their ledgers so that they can focus on destroying the environment at massive scale.
otherme123reply
FUD that they might be bought and controlled by foreigners, then offer a good slice to the US government (maybe they put you as part of the Army), and you become non-bankruptable.
bushidoreply
Very different races.
The incentives in north america favor software-esque plays where the players are racing towards % of marketshare based on usage.
China on the other hand is driving towards winning of manufacturing and % of hardware produced by them. China is competing with Nvidia, OpenAi and Anthropic are collateral damage.
logicchains
Fastest way to burn $800 billion. Even the Chinese government isn't nationalizing its AI companies, because there's no chance a cutting edge technology company can remain competitive when run by bureaucrats.
liliumregalereply
Could it be that the goal is not to be competitive, but to be responsible?
logicchainsreply
They're responsible for the Norwegian people's retirement savings, and burning $800 billion of it just to render an American AI company uncompetitive is not that.
danudeyreply
More importantly, openly shared public-weight models limits the scale of the success that closed-weight private AI services can manage. Eventually it'll become cheaper and easier to pay some AI data centre to use their capacity plus an open-source harness rather than to pay Anthropic to pay an AI data centre etc. etc.
IOW China almost definitely sees their own open-weight models as a pressure release valve to ensure the US AI companies, and by extension the US economy, doesn't get too big, and to ensure that these companies don't become the dominant global force (the way that e.g. US cloud companies did originally).
xur17reply
100% this. I would assume if any government purchased an ai company and wasn't completely hands off (which from the sound of this post, it wouldn't be), I would assume that company would fail.