huitzitziltzin
“ No other human activity poses this level of danger.”
I really, really disagree with that statement.
I don’t think ai models come close to nuclear weapons or to run-of-the-mill, everyday carbon emissions in terms of danger to humanity.
What’s the most dangerous thing that’s happened with an LLM so far? (This question is serious - maybe I don’t know the right examples.)
Example 1: I’m aware of a small number of people killing themselves in some kind of AI-facilitated psychosis. That is very unlikely to be a widespread problem.
Non-example 2: There are worries about AI-facilitated biological weapons. I haven’t seen any evidence that’s happening.
Non-example 3: I’m not interested in wild theories about AI driven labor market disruptions leading to widespread starvation. There’s no evidence for that.
Non-example 4: all the even-wilder Rationalist speculation about basilisks and the like is entirely divorced from reality.
I am looking for better reasons (supported by actual evidence!) to be more concerned than I am now: right now I am not concerned at all.
platinumradreply
Anthropic is a company full of basilisk believers.
epihelixreply
Yes, but the really weird thing is that they seem to:
a) believe that what they're creating is a basilisk, and
b) keep trying harder to do this while staring right at it
I think they're very deluded about (a) -- but if they do actually believe this (and it really seems like a decent proportion of Anthropic truly does), then why keep doing (b)?
That seems to be why this individual resigned, but I'm surprised it's not all of them. The cakeism is strong in that company.
jenadinereply
He was referring to this basilisk
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roko%27s_basilisk
In short, this is the believe that a god-like AI could punish them retroactively, for not having done all that was in their power to create this AI.
(A bit similar to some religious believe that a god could punish you after your death if you did not spend your live "pleasing" said god during your life)
danarisreply
With Roko's Basilisk, if you believe in it, the most rational thing to do is to put forth every effort to bring it into being. Because if you don't, then you will be one of its targets when it does, inevitably, come into being.
(I am not a basilisk believer. I think this is all absolute horseshit. But to understand someone's motivations, one must think like them.)
AIorNotreply
You mean a effing cult like heavens gate.. call all this rationalist crap for what it is - a religous movement with leaders and prophets and even a demiurge like God
Kim_Bruningreply
I'm somewhat skeptical of some of the crazier ideas too.
But the hugging face incident was actually very large. It was not a single agent, it was not a single target, and it was not a single event.
If nothing else, that's a bit of a warning as to what can happen next time (By accident, or if a government decides to go on purpose).
For now let's assume the worst that can happen is that some important/significant chunk of (transitively) internet connected stuff goes haywire all at once. That's probably your upper limit of what can go wrong for now.
To be fair, that's a conservative "defend against the last war" kind of prediction, though!
( ref for part of it: https://metr.org/blog/2026-08-26-openai-hugging-face-inciden... , recent hn ref: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49563355 )
ls612reply
Despite all of your hyping up of the Huggingface incident it ultimately caused zero actual damage.
adrithmetiqareply
If two airplane manufacturers were found to have massive safety issues which nearly led to enormous fatalities (but no one actually died), would you be calling for them to ground their aircraft until safety was made the number one priority?
Kim_Bruningreply
I have no horse in this race, but for fun on a literal rainy sunday afternoon I went in and confirmed bits of what happened myself. Besides huggingface, a bunch of wikis and url shorteners got hit too. My sympathies to the people who had to revert out all that mess.
snaking0776reply
Generally I don’t think anyone is arguing about the for now part. I don’t think it’s crazy to extrapolate out a few years and ask what kind of danger we’ll be in then. A team of 10,000 agents just solved the Navier Stokes problem (sans bad behavior by the researchers). Even 1 year ago that would have been unimaginable. What happens to this risk view as:
1. Robotics begin rolling out more broadly across the world.
2. Labs start automating more and more of the physical process of running science as expectations of natural science advances begin to mount.
3. Economic pressure between the labs continues to ramp up and the pressure to continuously improve forces quicker and quicker model releases than a team of human scientists can effectively evaluate outside of automated means.
No one knows what pre-conditions are for us to hit the point of no return nor how quickly it will come. If all is required is a sufficiently advanced cyber model we may not be far off. If it requires incredibly complex biological knowledge and access to certain lab supplies we likely have a bit longer. Yes this is guess work and we need more evidence of the dangers but at the same time we need evidence of safety. While you may disagree with the risk level, I think it is easy to see the consequence if these labs achieve their stated goal. At this point it seems a political solution is the only way to enforce caution.
skybrianreply
The mathematics research results are certainly impressive, but I don't see what that has to do with robotics.
Waymo is getting somewhere, but it's been a long slog. There doesn't seem to be much progress on, say, package delivery.
For more, see:
https://secondthoughts.ai/p/14-reasons-robotics-is-hard
paul7986reply
Job destruction signals...
- Uber is lobbying cities to slow down Waymo rollouts https://www.hcamag.com/us/specialization/transformation/uber......
- 23,000 information sector jobs were lost https://www.axios.com/2026/09/08/jobs-media-software-informa...
- If you have been laid from your info sector/digital creation job you are now competing with 100s of thousands looking for their next such job where Ai can do a lot of the tasks these workers did/do. It's a shitshow for those unemployed looking for their next info sector/digital asset creation job. You are better off doing welding building out the Ai data centers if you want long term properous financial stable employment.
jimmytucsonreply
> For now let's assume the worst that can happen is that some important/significant chunk of (transitively) internet connected stuff goes haywire all at once. That's probably your upper limit of what can go wrong for now.
If we have to disconnect from the internet to stop some kind of mold outbreak, we can't get the weather or transfer money or access healthcare or teach an elementary school class or buy stuff from small businesses. That sounds doom-ish.
mlylereply
Believe me, without the internet we can still teach.
We'll be pretty annoyed that we can't project the video that we think scaffolds today's science lesson best or show the approved choreography for the school play.
And our office staff will be annoyed that we suddenly are all running attendance to the main office old-school.
And students will take a few days to adjust to writing down homework in their planners again.
CalRobertreply
If anything the teaching would improve.
https://theonion.com/48-hour-internet-outage-plunges-nation-...
ozozozdreply
Erm, hate to break it to you but majority of the world is doing those things at least 50% analog still.
What doom?
xnxreply
Came here to also respond to that specific thing. Unless ai figures out how to make an airborne super virus from grocery store ingredients and hardware store equipment, the greatest danger is probably in a synchronized megahack of banking, logistics, and utility infrastructure.
b0rtb0rtreply
oh so “all” it can do is bring down all banking and critical infrastructure services, no big deal really
mitthrowaway2reply
Why grocery store ingredients and hardware store equipment? It seems feasible that the big bio labs will be running AI models to aid a lot of their research going forward, if they aren't already. Seems like the AI will have access to just about anything it wants.
asdffreply
"CDC announces a new partnership with blabalbalbal-AI to secure bioweapon stores...."
World ends.
bad_username
AI is a computer program. It calculates numbers from other numbers. By itself it does not "want" to do anything and "cannot" do anything. Before it becomes an agent in the universe (in the classical meaning), it requires being supplied by an execution environment, energy, initiative (agentic loop, specific instructions), and modality (readonly and mutating connections to real world). It is like a game of chess - it does not exist just by itself: someone must play it, having the board and the energy to do so. With the huggingface incident the AI was supplied with all of these components by humans before it broke out. So unless humans are actively involved, I so far cannot see how AI can become truly autonomously agentic and start doing anything on its own, thus posing danger. I could be wrong of course, but I do not see it for now.
You can say "yes and you have to fear the humans weilding the AI" - that I agree with.
jestersonreply
> You can say "yes and you have to fear the humans weilding the AI" - that I agree with.
I would suggest all smart people imply it. Morons believe on something "escaping controls and hacking HuggingFace" or similar stunts.
AI is just a tool, but unfortunately it's influence on humans have been quite troubling so far
doublerabbitreply
Solar panels and Ring doorbells, the ultimate party and you're not invited.
Each doorbell press activates a prompt to eliminate a human at random.
mofeienreply
Humans are bioreactors. They only turn one organic matter into another. By itself they do not "want" and "cannot" do anything.
They do not exist just by themselves. Some bacteria in the gut must provide them with the energy to do so. So unless bacteria are actively involved, I cannot see how humans become truly autonomously agentic and start to do anything on their own.
achenatx
how could they do it (not kill everyone)
1) rogue state releases a self moving self modifying AI into the wild. It is trained on how to hack, monitor new vulnerability updates, scan code bases to find new vulnerabilities. It constantly replicate and hides in systems so it will be extremely difficult to clear.
2) it hacks into public infrastructure taking down traffic, power, water, air traffic control, communications, etc.
3) all the things that preppers worry about in a lights out scenario from an EMP start to apply.
4) All the people on meds/machines start to die. The just in time food pipeline immediately empties out. Water stops flowing, sewage backs up.
Its hard to say how bad it will get because cars will still work so some transportation of food, water, fuel can happen. If it happens in the winter it would be much worse than in the summer.
happyopossumreply
> 1) rogue state releases a self moving self modifying AI into the wild. It is trained on how to hack, monitor new vulnerability updates, scan code bases to find new vulnerabilities. It constantly replicate and hides in systems so it will be extremely difficult to clear.
It does all of this using what compute? Frontier models require an insane amount of power and hardware to run - you can’t hack in to a TV and run Mythos 2.0 on it….
febusravengareply
But you can silently sneak into devs accounts, steal tokens/keys and run small agents on their budget in some stolen VMs. Small so it's not noticeable.
Basically a virus spreading agents of some operation.
It should be in scope of imagination with anyone with brief knowledge how bot nets are made and behave.
aogailireply
You are just given a recipe for the next model..
salawatreply
People here are too damned daft to realize half the damn purpose of this place is harvesting ideas. People need to just shut up, and keep things to themselves, and those they trust. Right now is not the time for naive info sharing.
nullbioreply
Being secretive will only get you so far, until something bad happens and no one has prepared or considered the possibility and is completely surprised by it. Open discussion, in theory, should result in identification of frail systems and harden them against attack.
The cyber-security industry has their work cut out for them.
hirvi74reply
> All the people on meds/machines start to die. The just in time food pipeline immediately empties out.
Assuming those events happen in that order, then the prior might solve the latter.
stratos123
The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a marketing stunt. If anything, many executives and senior researchers will couch their phrasing in the press to sound sensible - but I hear the same people express fear privately. No other human activity poses this level of danger.
A common response is “if they truly believe this, why are they still building it?” At OpenAI, many have not deeply internalized the civilizational stakes. At Anthropic, the stakes are well-understood, but they are locked in a race to get there first - they believe no one else will act responsibly, so they must do it themselves, despite the risk.
Watch people read this, ignore it completely, and continue commenting about marketing stunts on every piece of news about an LLM-done advance or felony.
acivitilloreply
He is resigning from a job, what else should we think? If something really dangerous was happening he would be doing a whistleblower or at minimum talk to a lawyer. The thing is, the complete lack of transparency makes it hard to assess OpenAI and Anthropic. If they were quoted on the stock market, we could at least rely on some basic audits and reporting requirements.
hegelstoleitreply
There's no whistleblower program for this, they're not breaking any laws. What are you proposing he should do if not this?
akmanreply
At least from an interview with Amanda, key philosopher at Anthropic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9aGC6Ui3eE&t=1912s
zdragnarreply
Having witnessed so many people treat LLMs as a something divine, I can only assume the reasonable people at openai and anthropic were all pushed out long ago, and the majority that remain believe the crazy hype despite Tesla-self-driving-level predictions from these companies that don't come true.
I'm not worried about what they think. I'm worried that too much infrastructure- water, power, defense systems, etc- remain running on tech from an outdated era of understanding security.
> they believe no one else will act responsibly, so they must do it themselves, despite the risk.
This genuinely makes no sense. Them getting there first in no way precludes bad actors from also getting there. It might as well be another marketing stunt.
reducesufferingreply
> I can only assume the reasonable people at openai and anthropic were all pushed out long ago
Typical uninformed take on the side of "doomers are crazy".
Both CEO's of OpenAI, Sam Altman and Dario Amodei, and many in their leadership, believe AGI has a very real probability of causing humanity's extinction. Both companies were founded upon this belief, it is at the core of the company. Only later were mercenaries hired chasing $1m compensation packages.
mooglyreply
If they truly, truly believed that, would they be speeding towards building it? If yes, that would make them truly insane, right? Not as in a quaint "off their rocker" but more "non compos mentis".
nozzlegearreply
Why is the take uninformed? You didn't address anything about the part you quoted, wherein reasonable people were allegedly pushed out long ago.
zdragnarreply
I'm not saying they are crazy, I'm saying their predictions have a record of not being accurate, and thus give them no weight compared to others'.
In any case, if Altman really does believe it is an existential threat, he must be a misanthrope as he now opposes heavy handed government regulation, unlike in 2015 when he was the only game in town. It's almost like he doesn't actually believe it and just wanted regulator capture.
cyanydeezreply
Cults are like this.
Are you saying you believethem ?